An authentic short squeeze. That’s what this week’s major JPY move reflects. After years of riding along with the Bank of Japan, things completely reversed. The USDJPY exchanged rate crossed 110, 109 and 108 all within a matter of days. That was both pretty painful and awesome. The USD is down 13% against the JPY since the high in August.
Wow! The #JPY is now < 109 against the #USD. Now what #BoJ? https://t.co/nVl1hmr9Mq
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 07, 2016
Wow! The #JPY is now < 109 against the #USD. Now what #BoJ? https://t.co/nVl1hmr9Mq
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 07, 2016
What did not reverse is the strong correlation between Japanese stocks and the JPY. The Nikkei index got hammered, hard! And by the looks of it, probably too hard. Unless the JPY strengthens even more, to below 105, the sell off looks overdone. For now, at least…
Japanese stocks are hit (too) hard, as #JPY climbs to the highest level since October 2014. #Nikkei https://t.co/ojofK9t4rS
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 06, 2016
Japanese stocks are hit (too) hard, as #JPY climbs to the highest level since October 2014. #Nikkei https://t.co/ojofK9t4rS
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 06, 2016
The Nikkei was not the only stock market to take a hit. European equities started this quarter pretty ugly as well. In fact, the resemblance with the start of Q1, in which both the Nikkei and Stoxx 50 plunged from the start, is pretty eerie.
ICYMI! Eurozone and Japanese stocks have started Q2 just as ugly as Q1, which was pretty ugly. #stoxx50 #Nikkei https://t.co/i0EYbwNIk5
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 05, 2016
ICYMI! Eurozone and Japanese stocks have started Q2 just as ugly as Q1, which was pretty ugly. #stoxx50 #Nikkei https://t.co/i0EYbwNIk5
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 05, 2016
Europe has Greece. The IMF is not happy about what the Greek achieved so far. And, by now we all know the drill. A lack of reforms means a lack of willingness from the Eurozone to pay up, which causes Greece to go bust. The chart below says this all at once.
#Greece is back! #debt-to-#GDP ratios in Europe. https://t.co/wrzO58Yewj
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 04, 2016
#Greece is back! #debt-to-#GDP ratios in Europe. https://t.co/wrzO58Yewj
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 04, 2016
As equities struggle, bond yields continue their, seemingly, endless slide. We are now very, very close to the low of last year. After that something ‘magic’ happened.
Ever closer! German 10-year bond #yield now 11 bps. https://t.co/dBa1eqPLlK
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 05, 2016
Ever closer! German 10-year bond #yield now 11 bps. https://t.co/dBa1eqPLlK
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 05, 2016
Meanwhile, the euro is completely neglecting Mr. Draghi’s bazooka, and continues to rise in value. The trade weighted euro is up roughly 7% since early December, when the ECB announced the first extension of its QE program. Yes, credibility is on the line here.
ICYMI! The trade weighted #Euro is up 7% since #Draghi first extended #QE at the beginning of December. https://t.co/Sx8bqqDy3T
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 07, 2016
ICYMI! The trade weighted #Euro is up 7% since #Draghi first extended #QE at the beginning of December. https://t.co/Sx8bqqDy3T
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 07, 2016
But this was already the case, right? I do realize that it is expected inflation that counts, but has core CPI really been that horrible to warrant such massive QE? I wonder…
#deflation in one chart? Does the black line warrant unprecedented #QE? https://t.co/0UBExrb66Y
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 07, 2016
#deflation in one chart? Does the black line warrant unprecedented #QE? https://t.co/0UBExrb66Y
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 07, 2016
Unprecedented QE translates into bond madness. There’s nothing new about that. But it doesn’t hurt to picture this once in a while. 30-year bond yields are just incredibly low.
CHART! With the exception of the U.S, long bond, #yields are just extremely, incredibly low. https://t.co/htON00Qzxk
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 06, 2016
CHART! With the exception of the U.S, long bond, #yields are just extremely, incredibly low. https://t.co/htON00Qzxk
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 06, 2016
If you think that’s pretty amazing, check out the graph below. The Swiss government has a bond outstanding with a maturity of 50 years. The effective yield on that bond is… 25 basis points. Yes, that’s right, you can now lend the Swiss government money for a period of 50 years and get just 0.25% p.a. in return.
ICYMI! The Swiss 50(!)-year government bond yields just 25bps! Bond madness. https://t.co/McTBR0qjoT
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 05, 2016
ICYMI! The Swiss 50(!)-year government bond yields just 25bps! Bond madness. https://t.co/McTBR0qjoT
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 05, 2016
Let’s move over to the US where bond yields look less crazy. First quarter growth, however, looks dismal. This should not come as a surprise since US GDP grew just 0.2% (annualized) in Q1 during the last 10 years. But since the Atlanta Fed promised us much better growth numbers earlier on, this feels disappointing.
Reminder! Q1 US #GDP growth has been dismal for a decade! Averaging just 0.2%. https://t.co/k0qhyLIQ8n
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 05, 2016
Reminder! Q1 US #GDP growth has been dismal for a decade! Averaging just 0.2%. https://t.co/k0qhyLIQ8n
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 05, 2016
This is, of course, nothing compared to Venezuela, which is basically falling apart. Economic woes, but especially hyperinflation has put the country on top of the misery leader board. When it comes to misery Venezuela is in a league of its own.
When it comes to misery, #Venezuela is in a league of its own! via @business https://t.co/9jIVl0Qr7T
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 07, 2016
When it comes to misery, #Venezuela is in a league of its own! via @business https://t.co/9jIVl0Qr7T
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 07, 2016
Fortunately, every cloud has its ‘silver lining.’ In order to reduce electricity consumption, the Venezuelan government has announced that, in April and May, every Friday is a non-working HOLIDAY.
'Thank God it's Friday', just got a whole new meaning in #Venezuela!
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/bY2vESiTaV
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 07, 2016
'Thank God it's Friday', just got a whole new meaning in #Venezuela! bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/bY2vESiTaV
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 07, 2016
Thank you for reading the Week End blog! Enjoy your weekend!