I don’t know what to make of this week in financial markets. I guess some major events were on the agenda, but nothing to get really excited about. As expected the ECB announced no new measures. Draghi shed some light on corporate bond buying and dismissed helicopter money for now. With the absence of Ms. Josephine Witt,  who ‘glitter-bombed’ Draghi at the press conference last year, things were pretty boring. Let me, therefore, remind you that the whole QE thing hasn’t brought much joy to European markets. They are down 10% since QE was launched.

#ECB chart! So far, #QE has not been particularly beneficial to European equities. Stocks down 10% since start QE. https://t.co/9JLJBZ4A5c

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 22, 2016

Also, bond yields have started to move up. It’s perhaps a little early, but so far the resemblance with last year is striking.

Update of German bond #yield lift off chart. https://t.co/wPj3YdcoIO

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 21, 2016

There’s no shortage of bond madness however. Just take a look at the 40-year Japanese and the 50-year Swiss government bond yield, and you’ll know things are just weird.

Surely, these are the world's craziest bond yields! The Swiss 50(!)-year bond earns you less than 30 bps per year. https://t.co/pdLtDvLb7A

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 19, 2016

Let me show this in another way. Since the start of this year, the Japanese 40-year government bond realized a return of 38%. I know, that number is just ridiculous. But things get even more dramatic when that return is compared to Japanese stocks, which realized heavy losses since the start of this year. I can’t imagine  anyone predicting you could earn 50% in less than four months going long bonds and short equities.

WOW chart! The 40-year Japanese govt bond is up a staggering 38% this year, against a loss of 12% on the #Nikkei. https://t.co/s8ELWkHZ5p

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 20, 2016

About that other ‘non-event.’ As should have been expected, the OPEC meeting in Doha led to absolutely nothing. Oil producing countries are just too preoccupied with their own budgets and keep on pumping. Anyway, after an initial drop of up to 7%, oil marched onto higher grounds.

#oil's asymmetric event! @IEA 'Freeze doesn't imply higher prices', but no freeze in #Doha sends #oil down >4%... https://t.co/zvjW190Yya

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 18, 2016

In case of Saudi Arabia and Iran, they are also too preoccupied with each other. No matter the cost, as long as the other does not gain market share everything is fine.

#SaudiArabia is willing to accept massive budget deficits in order to maintain its market share in #oil production. https://t.co/mne1PlGj4I

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 19, 2016

Meanwhile, the collapse in commodity prices is taking its toll. 46 defaults already this year, mostly within the energy sector, has pushed the default rate to a 7-year high.

The global #default rate is at the highest in 7 years. 46 defaults already this year, led by US. via @standardpoors https://t.co/9tbIjp4ddi

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 19, 2016

But, since investors totally lost track of reality in the first two months of the year, 46 defaults is actually pretty decent. At one point, around the middle of February, high yield investors expected more than 50% of all energy companies to go bust. This is not going to happen.

High Yield Chart! The global #highyield #spread has tightened by a staggering 220 basis points since mid February. https://t.co/B1y26JRe4X

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 22, 2016

In China, things are looking brighter. Well, at least in the short-term. Monetary and fiscal easing is showing up in macro data. The economic surprise index is at the highest level in over a year and money supply is growing at a very rapid pace. This week, I will not mention the part that credit plays in the China growth story. Ok?

#China stimulus! M1 money supply grows at the fastest pace in five years. https://t.co/7Pf8BU92cx

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 21, 2016

While we keep guessing when China will overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy, you might want to take notice of the fact that China has been the country with the largest share of global GDP for centuries.

ICYMI! #China has already been the world's greatest economy for hundreds of years! History chart. https://t.co/SajqbMwhwZ

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 18, 2016

Despite recession fears, and low growth numbers, a U.S. recession could be way out. The 4-week rolling average of initial jobless claims, historically a pretty decent recession forecaster, will probably hit a new low next week. On average it took 12 months after a low in initial jobless claims before growth turned negative. Let’s await that low first.

The drop in initial jobless claims says a U.S. #recession is not imminent! https://t.co/QiQgD1JgwC

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 22, 2016

Finally, some very cool hyperinflation data. Venezuela would enter the top 10 of hyperinflation cases as inflation could rise to 1000% soon. But that’s nothing, absolutely nothing, compared to the hyperinflation that Hungary and Zimbabwe experienced.

The history of #hyperinflation! #Venezuela (CPI>500%) already makes the top 10! @steve_hanke object.cato.org/sites/cato.org… https://t.co/gXImZna3qS

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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 20, 2016

Hoping this Week End Blog wasn’t too much of a non-event for you, enjoy your weekend!