11. Mark Rutte’s VVD wins Dutch elections, Wilders’ PVV second
In the end, things were much less exiting than the polls made us believe. Rutte became the clear winner obtaining 33 of the 150 available seats. Reminder, this is still a loss of eight seats.
Good #DutchElection morning! #Rutte's #VVD wins elections beating #Wilders' #PVV by 13 seats. Ver y unlikely PVV wi… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
Good #DutchElection morning! #Rutte's #VVD wins elections beating #Wilders' #PVV by 13 seats. Ver y unlikely PVV wi… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
10. Le Pen’s loss of momentum
The result of the Dutch elections pushed the Le Pen winning odds down just a little bit more.
The odds of #LePen winning the French #elections have dropped to the lowest level in over a month! https://t.co/8mJrCHmJre
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
The odds of #LePen winning the French #elections have dropped to the lowest level in over a month! https://t.co/8mJrCHmJre
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
9. Fed delivers dovish hike
The Fed hiked rates just for the third time in a decade, and emphasized it’s likely to continue to take things slow.
The #Fed #dotplot signals two more rate hike this year, one member (Bullard) kept its extremely low rate forecast. https://t.co/eeBhV2lEve
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 15, 2017
The #Fed #dotplot signals two more rate hike this year, one member (Bullard) kept its extremely low rate forecast. https://t.co/eeBhV2lEve
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 15, 2017
8. US inflation at 5-year high
Inflation is back! Perhaps only temporarily (I don’t really think so), but it’s here.
BREAKING! US headline #inflation rises to the highest level in almost five years! https://t.co/5eTAcHo9og
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 15, 2017
BREAKING! US headline #inflation rises to the highest level in almost five years! https://t.co/5eTAcHo9og
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 15, 2017
7. Dollar down
Despite the Fed being the only one of the major central banks tightening, the US dollar has not strengthened. This is in line with previous Fed hiking cycles.
UPDATE! The #USD is now down against all major #currencies this year, including #GBP! https://t.co/9BiCMrVTQX
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
UPDATE! The #USD is now down against all major #currencies this year, including #GBP! https://t.co/9BiCMrVTQX
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
6. Central bank convergence
While the ECB and BoE left their monetary policies unchanged, the decision of the latter was not unanimous. Should we get ready for higher rates in Europe as well?
It's happening! UK's 2-year bond #yield spikes as one #BoE member voted to increase interest rates, others consider… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
It's happening! UK's 2-year bond #yield spikes as one #BoE member voted to increase interest rates, others consider… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
5. Distortion
For now, European bond markets, especially those in the Eurozone, remain incredibly distorted.
Bond markets not distorted? You get twice as much #yield on a 1-month US Treasury than on a German 10-year governme… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
Bond markets not distorted? You get twice as much #yield on a 1-month US Treasury than on a German 10-year governme… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
4. Italian Issues
Italy’s government debt rose to a massive EUR 2.25 trillion in January, or more than 130% of GDP. Perhaps it’s for the best that Eurozone yields are so distorted.
The odds of #LePen winning the French #elections have dropped to the lowest level in over a month! https://t.co/8mJrCHmJre
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
The odds of #LePen winning the French #elections have dropped to the lowest level in over a month! https://t.co/8mJrCHmJre
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 16, 2017
3. Equities rally on
There is very little that can derail equity markets, right now. Central banks, debt, politics, it just doesn’t matter… for now.
A history of bull markets in one chart! ht @Callum_Thomas @RyanDetrick https://t.co/RVj69ZeX5M
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 12, 2017
A history of bull markets in one chart! ht @Callum_Thomas @RyanDetrick https://t.co/RVj69ZeX5M
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 12, 2017
2. Brexit record
UK unemployment is down to the lowest level since 1975! Just saying.
The 'power' of #Brexit! UK #unemployment fell to 4.7% in January, matching the lowest level since 1975! 'Yes' 1975! https://t.co/07FY5qLDGx
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 15, 2017
The 'power' of #Brexit! UK #unemployment fell to 4.7% in January, matching the lowest level since 1975! 'Yes' 1975! https://t.co/07FY5qLDGx
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 15, 2017
1. Yield history
Pretty well received on Twitter this week. Are bond yields really that low, or have the last four decades distorted our view?
Are bond yields really that low? 300 years of bond yields in one chart! https://t.co/0v3KqOOQhf
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jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 13, 2017
Are bond yields really that low? 300 years of bond yields in one chart! https://t.co/0v3KqOOQhf
—jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 13, 2017
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