Stuck!
Italy’s economy has virtually stopped growing in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Real quarterly GDP growth has averaged a meager 0.05% since 2010. As a result, the debt-to-GDP ratio […]
Author Archives: jsblokland
Recession indicators are overrated for stock returns
Equity investors are always looking for signs of the next recession. Recessions mean higher unemployment, lower spending, lower earnings and ultimately more defaults, all of which are bad news for […]
Miniblog – Chinese profits down again
Profits of Chinese industrial companies fell 1.9% year on year in December, marking the second consecutive month of earnings decline. For 2018 as a whole, profits rose 10.3%, half the […]
Emerging stocks could make a comeback in 2019
2018 wasn’t a pretty year for equity markets in general, and for emerging markets in particular. Global stocks fell 4.1% (in euros), whereas emerging market equities realized a negative return […]
Volatility feels more extreme than it actually is
Markets have seen a sharp increase in volatility in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 experiencing its worst December month since 1931. But, looking back at the history, the total […]
The average return doesn’t exist (2019 edition)
Every year I post an update of the ‘average return doesn’t exist’ blog to show that the average return on equities is mostly a statistic, and is seldomly seen in […]
A quick overview of negative calendar year returns
Since its inception in March 1957, the S&P 500 price index has realized a negative return in 17 calendar years. Including 2018. This means that the index records a negative […]
2018 in (tweeted) charts!
2018 in (tweeted) charts! This blog aims to give a relatively concise overview of financial markets in 2018 using a selection of charts I tweeted throughout the year. While this […]
A year in which ‘nothing’ worked!
2018 has proven to be a very challenging year for financial markets. This is summed up by today’s chart, created by Deutsche Bank, which shows that in US Dollars terms, […]
The pieces of the puzzle are slowly falling into place for emerging markets
Emerging market stocks often produce paltry returns when the US dollar strengthens. But recent developments point to a change in this trend, making emerging markets a more attractive investment prospect. […]
