The Yieldless Society
Central banks worldwide – with the Fed and the ECB at the forefront – have not even started to implement their historically rapid policy reversal, and we’re already hitting new […]
Category Archives: FINANCIAL MARKETS
Yield curve inversion, recessions and asset class returns
The US yield curve has (almost) inverted, and this has been making headlines for the last couple of months now. This should come as no surprise, as the yield curve […]
Earnings growth is not a prerequisite for higher equity prices
With global growth leveling off, investors are more focused than ever on corporate results. These reveal a less rosy picture than in previous years and company expectations are very muted. […]
The far-reaching effects of central bank policy
The impact of central banks should not be underestimated. And I don’t just mean their impact on economic growth and interest rates. Central banks are also a driving force of […]
Recession indicators are overrated for stock returns
Equity investors are always looking for signs of the next recession. Recessions mean higher unemployment, lower spending, lower earnings and ultimately more defaults, all of which are bad news for […]
Miniblog – Chinese profits down again
Profits of Chinese industrial companies fell 1.9% year on year in December, marking the second consecutive month of earnings decline. For 2018 as a whole, profits rose 10.3%, half the […]
Emerging stocks could make a comeback in 2019
2018 wasn’t a pretty year for equity markets in general, and for emerging markets in particular. Global stocks fell 4.1% (in euros), whereas emerging market equities realized a negative return […]
Volatility feels more extreme than it actually is
Markets have seen a sharp increase in volatility in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 experiencing its worst December month since 1931. But, looking back at the history, the total […]
The average return doesn’t exist (2019 edition)
Every year I post an update of the ‘average return doesn’t exist’ blog to show that the average return on equities is mostly a statistic, and is seldomly seen in […]
A quick overview of negative calendar year returns
Since its inception in March 1957, the S&P 500 price index has realized a negative return in 17 calendar years. Including 2018. This means that the index records a negative […]
