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Category Archives: MACRO

Bond issues

October 5, 2020by jsblokland Leave a comment

What to do about government bonds? The yield on government bonds is historically low, while the risk is high. In the event of rising inflation, they offer little or no buffer. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t ban them completely from multi-asset portfolios just yet.

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BONDS, MACRO, TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION

The Great Lockdown Recession

April 20, 2020by jsblokland Leave a comment

The IMF published new estimates for the global economy, which weren’t great – to put it mildly. The coming quarters will be historically poor and the risks will remain thereafter. […]

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FINANCIAL MARKETS, MACRO

The momentum for fiscal stimulus is building

March 11, 2020by jsblokland Leave a comment

US President Trump is calling for a payroll tax relief until after the US elections. Australia just announced a EUR 11 billion package to counter the adverse impact of the […]

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FINANCIAL MARKETS, MACRO

Is the strength of the US consumer overrated?

November 29, 2019by jsblokland Leave a comment

The US consumer, which represents a bigger share of global GDP than China’s economy, has been the main driver of US GDP growth in recent quarters. Spurred by job and […]

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FINANCIAL MARKETS, MACRO

A missed opportunity

October 28, 2019by jsblokland Leave a comment

Economic growth in the Eurozone has slumped. Germany has even slipped into recession territory and yields are still extremely low, or even negative. Nevertheless, there is a noticeable absence of […]

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MACRO

Yield curve inversion, recessions and asset class returns

May 8, 2019by jsblokland Leave a comment

The US yield curve has (almost) inverted, and this has been making headlines for the last couple of months now. This should come as no surprise, as the yield curve […]

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FINANCIAL MARKETS, MACRO, TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION

The IMF’s ‘remarkable’ track record

April 12, 2019by jsblokland Leave a comment

Forecasting recessions is hard. Just ask the IMF. The chart below, based on the work of Andrew Bridgen, chief economist at London-based Fathom Consulting, shows that the IMF has only […]

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MACRO

The era of extraordinary monetary policy continues

April 1, 2019by jsblokland Leave a comment

Few investors anticipated that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could sound even more dovish than he has in recent months. But, at the last FOMC meeting, he managed to do […]

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BONDS, MACRO

Stuck!

February 19, 2019by jsblokland Leave a comment

Italy’s economy has virtually stopped growing in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Real quarterly GDP growth has averaged a meager 0.05% since 2010. As a result, the debt-to-GDP ratio […]

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MACRO

Recession indicators are overrated for stock returns

February 12, 2019by jsblokland Leave a comment

Equity investors are always looking for signs of the next recession. Recessions mean higher unemployment, lower spending, lower earnings and ultimately more defaults, all of which are bad news for […]

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EQUITIES, FINANCIAL MARKETS, MACRO, TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION

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