Yield curve inversion, recessions and asset class returns
The US yield curve has (almost) inverted, and this has been making headlines for the last couple of months now. This should come as no surprise, as the yield curve […]
Category Archives: MACRO
The IMF’s ‘remarkable’ track record
Forecasting recessions is hard. Just ask the IMF. The chart below, based on the work of Andrew Bridgen, chief economist at London-based Fathom Consulting, shows that the IMF has only […]
The era of extraordinary monetary policy continues
Few investors anticipated that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could sound even more dovish than he has in recent months. But, at the last FOMC meeting, he managed to do […]
Stuck!
Italy’s economy has virtually stopped growing in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Real quarterly GDP growth has averaged a meager 0.05% since 2010. As a result, the debt-to-GDP ratio […]
Recession indicators are overrated for stock returns
Equity investors are always looking for signs of the next recession. Recessions mean higher unemployment, lower spending, lower earnings and ultimately more defaults, all of which are bad news for […]
2018 in (tweeted) charts!
2018 in (tweeted) charts! This blog aims to give a relatively concise overview of financial markets in 2018 using a selection of charts I tweeted throughout the year. While this […]
The Confident Consumer
US consumer confidence rose for the fourth consecutive month in October, and has now reached an 18-year high. But while this is certainly an impressive milestone, the sharp increase hasn’t […]
Turkey’s currency crisis – what you should know
The Turkish lira has taken a heavy pounding recently as investors have started to doubt the country’s creditworthiness and economic outlook. At the time of writing, the value of the […]
When will China’s economy start to slow?
China reported a 6.8% year-on-year economic growth number for the first quarter. Again, the lack of volatility in the GDP data was striking. As the chart below reveals, economic growth […]
Macro surprise indices: great insights, not so great market predictors
Macroeconomic surprise indices have become increasingly popular in recent years. To many investors they matter more than the actual macro-economic numbers, which should make macro surprise indices a useful tool […]
