Equity market volatility is low. Hence, recommendations to invest in volatility are abundant again. But before you pursue such an investment, let me warn you first. Because, making a profit from such an investment strategy requires perfect foresight. On average, a long position in volatility is a very unprofitable strategy. Especially, when volatility is low! […]
Markets are pricing in a low probability of a bear market, but are they right?
Ask a random stock market ‘guru’ at the beginning of the year what he or she expects what equities will do that year and you will probably get an answer […]
It took a while, but investors slowly start to realize that the Fed is for real. It has been over a decade since we last experienced a proper Fed rate-hike […]
The latest outcome of the weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey revealed that bullish investors are historically scarce. Less than 20% of the individual investors surveyed by the The American Association […]
Hit by a sharp downturn in investor sentiment, US high yield spreads have widened to levels last seen since 2011. Back then, slowing (even negative in Q1) growth and the […]
September is upon us! This means we are entering the calendar month that’s considered by many as the cruelest for equities. And this year, as a ‘bonus’, it follows an […]
Equity market volatility is low. Hence, recommendations to invest in volatility are abundant again. But before you pursue such an investment, let me warn you first. Because, making a profit […]
Here’s a very brief update on this year’s ‘Sell in May’ effect. The graph above shows that during last winter period (November – April) stocks yielded healthy returns. Especially in […]
Lately, there has been a lot of attention for the major divergence in the macro surprise indices for the US and the Eurozone. The graph below shows this divergence for […]
