Midterm Elections – Stock markets tend to go up from here
The US midterm elections are behind us. As expected the Democrats took the House while Republicans hold the Senate. So what happens now? Surely we can’t tell, but if history […]
Category Archives: TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION
Are Fed tightening cycles good or bad news for emerging markets? (Part I)
Most investors tend to agree that the Federal Reserve is in the midst of a monetary tightening cycle, which will take some time to complete. But when asked about the […]
Rational Exuberance?
Here is a ‘surprise’ for you. The number of news stories stating that irrational exuberance is back on the stock markets is growing rapidly. In addition, irrational exuberance was mentioned […]
A horrifically good investment strategy
Halloween is behind us. Which offers me the possibility to not talk about dominant central banks, for once. Even though, we now know who the new Fed chair will be […]
Betting on rising volatility is a loss-making strategy!
Equity market volatility is low. Hence, recommendations to invest in volatility are abundant again. But before you pursue such an investment, let me warn you first. Because, making a profit from such an investment strategy requires perfect foresight. On average, a long position in volatility is a very unprofitable strategy. Especially, when volatility is low! […]
Bear Market Optimism
Markets are pricing in a low probability of a bear market, but are they right?
The Average Return Doesn’t Exist!
Ask a random stock market ‘guru’ at the beginning of the year what he or she expects what equities will do that year and you will probably get an answer […]
‘When the Fed hikes, buy global equities and commodities’, history says
It took a while, but investors slowly start to realize that the Fed is for real. It has been over a decade since we last experienced a proper Fed rate-hike […]
The Bulls are gone and why that’s good news!
The latest outcome of the weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey revealed that bullish investors are historically scarce. Less than 20% of the individual investors surveyed by the The American Association […]
The Current High Yield Spread – What to make of it?
Hit by a sharp downturn in investor sentiment, US high yield spreads have widened to levels last seen since 2011. Back then, slowing (even negative in Q1) growth and the […]
