The average return doesn’t exist (2021 edition)
Welcome to this year’s update of the ‘average return doesn’t exist’ blog, revealing that the average return on equities is mostly a statistic, and is rarely seen in reality. However, […]
Category Archives: TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION
Bond issues
What to do about government bonds? The yield on government bonds is historically low, while the risk is high. In the event of rising inflation, they offer little or no buffer. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t ban them completely from multi-asset portfolios just yet.
Valuation puzzle
Equities are expensive. It’s difficult to argue against this. But does this also mean that markets will fall sharply? Assuming that there are plenty of other factors that could drag […]
It’s too early to get too gloomy about stocks
An unexpected and unfortunate outbreak of the coronavirus puts pressure on the sustainability of the increase in global growth momentum. The fact that the uptick in momentum had only just […]
The average return doesn’t exist (2020 edition)
Here’s this year’s update of the ‘average return doesn’t exist’ blog showing that the average return on equities is mostly a statistic, and is seldomly seen in reality. And last […]
Is the ‘great rotation’ upon us?
Stock markets have been fairly quiet in recent days, moving higher most of the time. But underneath, a spectacular rotation has been going on. Value stocks – which have lagged […]
Yield curve inversion, recessions and asset class returns
The US yield curve has (almost) inverted, and this has been making headlines for the last couple of months now. This should come as no surprise, as the yield curve […]
Where is the decline?
The chart above, created by JP Morgan, shows the calendar year returns on the S&P 500 Index and the intra-year drops that occurred during those years. This reveals an interesting […]
Equity v Bond Returns
Charts showing massive divergence are interesting to look at most of the time. And the ‘gap’ chart between US equity and bond returns is no exception. Since the start of […]
Earnings growth is not a prerequisite for higher equity prices
With global growth leveling off, investors are more focused than ever on corporate results. These reveal a less rosy picture than in previous years and company expectations are very muted. […]
