Yield curve inversion, recessions and asset class returns
The US yield curve has (almost) inverted, and this has been making headlines for the last couple of months now. This should come as no surprise, as the yield curve […]
Category Archives: TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION
Where is the decline?
The chart above, created by JP Morgan, shows the calendar year returns on the S&P 500 Index and the intra-year drops that occurred during those years. This reveals an interesting […]
Equity v Bond Returns
Charts showing massive divergence are interesting to look at most of the time. And the ‘gap’ chart between US equity and bond returns is no exception. Since the start of […]
Earnings growth is not a prerequisite for higher equity prices
With global growth leveling off, investors are more focused than ever on corporate results. These reveal a less rosy picture than in previous years and company expectations are very muted. […]
The far-reaching effects of central bank policy
The impact of central banks should not be underestimated. And I don’t just mean their impact on economic growth and interest rates. Central banks are also a driving force of […]
Recession indicators are overrated for stock returns
Equity investors are always looking for signs of the next recession. Recessions mean higher unemployment, lower spending, lower earnings and ultimately more defaults, all of which are bad news for […]
Emerging stocks could make a comeback in 2019
2018 wasn’t a pretty year for equity markets in general, and for emerging markets in particular. Global stocks fell 4.1% (in euros), whereas emerging market equities realized a negative return […]
The average return doesn’t exist (2019 edition)
Every year I post an update of the ‘average return doesn’t exist’ blog to show that the average return on equities is mostly a statistic, and is seldomly seen in […]
The pieces of the puzzle are slowly falling into place for emerging markets
Emerging market stocks often produce paltry returns when the US dollar strengthens. But recent developments point to a change in this trend, making emerging markets a more attractive investment prospect. […]
Midterm Elections – Stock markets tend to go up from here
The US midterm elections are behind us. As expected the Democrats took the House while Republicans hold the Senate. So what happens now? Surely we can’t tell, but if history […]
