The far-reaching effects of central bank policy
The impact of central banks should not be underestimated. And I don’t just mean their impact on economic growth and interest rates. Central banks are also a driving force of […]
Category Archives: TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION
Recession indicators are overrated for stock returns
Equity investors are always looking for signs of the next recession. Recessions mean higher unemployment, lower spending, lower earnings and ultimately more defaults, all of which are bad news for […]
Emerging stocks could make a comeback in 2019
2018 wasn’t a pretty year for equity markets in general, and for emerging markets in particular. Global stocks fell 4.1% (in euros), whereas emerging market equities realized a negative return […]
The average return doesn’t exist (2019 edition)
Every year I post an update of the ‘average return doesn’t exist’ blog to show that the average return on equities is mostly a statistic, and is seldomly seen in […]
The pieces of the puzzle are slowly falling into place for emerging markets
Emerging market stocks often produce paltry returns when the US dollar strengthens. But recent developments point to a change in this trend, making emerging markets a more attractive investment prospect. […]
Midterm Elections – Stock markets tend to go up from here
The US midterm elections are behind us. As expected the Democrats took the House while Republicans hold the Senate. So what happens now? Surely we can’t tell, but if history […]
Are Fed tightening cycles good or bad news for emerging markets? (Part I)
Most investors tend to agree that the Federal Reserve is in the midst of a monetary tightening cycle, which will take some time to complete. But when asked about the […]
Rational Exuberance?
Here is a ‘surprise’ for you. The number of news stories stating that irrational exuberance is back on the stock markets is growing rapidly. In addition, irrational exuberance was mentioned […]
A horrifically good investment strategy
Halloween is behind us. Which offers me the possibility to not talk about dominant central banks, for once. Even though, we now know who the new Fed chair will be […]
Betting on rising volatility is a loss-making strategy!
Equity market volatility is low. Hence, recommendations to invest in volatility are abundant again. But before you pursue such an investment, let me warn you first. Because, making a profit from such an investment strategy requires perfect foresight. On average, a long position in volatility is a very unprofitable strategy. Especially, when volatility is low! […]
