Midterm Elections – Stock markets tend to go up from here
The US midterm elections are behind us. As expected the Democrats took the House while Republicans hold the Senate. So what happens now? Surely we can’t tell, but if history […]
Category Archives: TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION
Rational Exuberance?
Here is a ‘surprise’ for you. The number of news stories stating that irrational exuberance is back on the stock markets is growing rapidly. In addition, irrational exuberance was mentioned […]
The Average Return Doesn’t Exist!
Ask a random stock market ‘guru’ at the beginning of the year what he or she expects what equities will do that year and you will probably get an answer […]
The Current High Yield Spread – What to make of it?
Hit by a sharp downturn in investor sentiment, US high yield spreads have widened to levels last seen since 2011. Back then, slowing (even negative in Q1) growth and the […]
Seven Charts on Market Behavior in September
September is upon us! This means we are entering the calendar month that’s considered by many as the cruelest for equities. And this year, as a ‘bonus’, it follows an […]
Sell in May – Early Summer Update
Here’s a very brief update on this year’s ‘Sell in May’ effect. The graph above shows that during last winter period (November – April) stocks yielded healthy returns. Especially in […]
Surprise Peak!
Lately, there has been a lot of attention for the major divergence in the macro surprise indices for the US and the Eurozone. The graph below shows this divergence for […]
Three charts on stock markets & volatility
The relationship between stock market returns and volatility is negative. Common investor knowledge, I presume. Since the start of this millennium the correlation between weekly changes in the VIX index […]
Seasonal Patterns in Financial Markets – An Overview
It’s been almost two weeks since the first of November, traditionally the start of the best period for financial markets. Well, at least for equities it is. But what about […]
Week End Blog – Russia Ru(m)bles, Gold Glooms, but stocks prevail!
Another hectic week in financial markets is almost behind us, with Russia making the headlines once again. Renewed tensions in the Ukraine, crumbling oil prices and fears of recession resulted […]
Jeroen Blokland Financial Markets Blog 