‘When the Fed hikes, buy global equities and commodities’, history says
It took a while, but investors slowly start to realize that the Fed is for real. It has been over a decade since we last experienced a proper Fed rate-hike […]
Category Archives: TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION
The Bulls are gone and why that’s good news!
The latest outcome of the weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey revealed that bullish investors are historically scarce. Less than 20% of the individual investors surveyed by the The American Association […]
The Current High Yield Spread – What to make of it?
Hit by a sharp downturn in investor sentiment, US high yield spreads have widened to levels last seen since 2011. Back then, slowing (even negative in Q1) growth and the […]
Seven Charts on Market Behavior in September
September is upon us! This means we are entering the calendar month that’s considered by many as the cruelest for equities. And this year, as a ‘bonus’, it follows an […]
Be aware! Betting on rising volatility requires an impeccable timing skill!
Equity market volatility is low. Hence, recommendations to invest in volatility are abundant again. But before you pursue such an investment, let me warn you first. Because, making a profit […]
Sell in May – Early Summer Update
Here’s a very brief update on this year’s ‘Sell in May’ effect. The graph above shows that during last winter period (November – April) stocks yielded healthy returns. Especially in […]
Surprise Peak!
Lately, there has been a lot of attention for the major divergence in the macro surprise indices for the US and the Eurozone. The graph below shows this divergence for […]
Three charts on stock markets & volatility
The relationship between stock market returns and volatility is negative. Common investor knowledge, I presume. Since the start of this millennium the correlation between weekly changes in the VIX index […]
Seasonal Patterns in Financial Markets – An Overview
It’s been almost two weeks since the first of November, traditionally the start of the best period for financial markets. Well, at least for equities it is. But what about […]
Week End Blog – Russia Ru(m)bles, Gold Glooms, but stocks prevail!
Another hectic week in financial markets is almost behind us, with Russia making the headlines once again. Renewed tensions in the Ukraine, crumbling oil prices and fears of recession resulted […]
