The Great Lockdown Recession
The IMF published new estimates for the global economy, which weren’t great – to put it mildly. The coming quarters will be historically poor and the risks will remain thereafter. […]
Tag Archives: gdp growth
It’s too early to get too gloomy about stocks
An unexpected and unfortunate outbreak of the coronavirus puts pressure on the sustainability of the increase in global growth momentum. The fact that the uptick in momentum had only just […]
Is the strength of the US consumer overrated?
The US consumer, which represents a bigger share of global GDP than China’s economy, has been the main driver of US GDP growth in recent quarters. Spurred by job and […]
5 charts (week 47)
Singapore electronics exports improve significantly Electronics export growth in Singapore, a bellwether for global earnings per share, improved significantly in October. While year-on-year electronics exports still recorded a double-digit decline […]
A missed opportunity
Economic growth in the Eurozone has slumped. Germany has even slipped into recession territory and yields are still extremely low, or even negative. Nevertheless, there is a noticeable absence of […]
The IMF’s ‘remarkable’ track record
Forecasting recessions is hard. Just ask the IMF. The chart below, based on the work of Andrew Bridgen, chief economist at London-based Fathom Consulting, shows that the IMF has only […]
The pieces of the puzzle are slowly falling into place for emerging markets
Emerging market stocks often produce paltry returns when the US dollar strengthens. But recent developments point to a change in this trend, making emerging markets a more attractive investment prospect. […]
Why is the euro not trading at parity with the dollar?
The divergence between the Eurozone and the US is growing. And I’m not just talking about the difference in bond yields. Significant gaps have also developed between equity markets and […]
Goldilocks Returns…
It’s official, Goldilocks is back on the stock market. At least according to the fund managers that participated in BofA Merrill Lynch’s Global Fund Manager Survey. For the first time […]
Calm before the Storm?
Markets are unnervingly calm these days. During the last six months, the realized volatility of the S&P 500 Index fell to the lowest level in more than half a century. […]
