The IMF’s ‘remarkable’ track record
Forecasting recessions is hard. Just ask the IMF. The chart below, based on the work of Andrew Bridgen, chief economist at London-based Fathom Consulting, shows that the IMF has only […]
Tag Archives: gdp growth
The pieces of the puzzle are slowly falling into place for emerging markets
Emerging market stocks often produce paltry returns when the US dollar strengthens. But recent developments point to a change in this trend, making emerging markets a more attractive investment prospect. […]
Why is the euro not trading at parity with the dollar?
The divergence between the Eurozone and the US is growing. And I’m not just talking about the difference in bond yields. Significant gaps have also developed between equity markets and […]
Goldilocks Returns…
It’s official, Goldilocks is back on the stock market. At least according to the fund managers that participated in BofA Merrill Lynch’s Global Fund Manager Survey. For the first time […]
Calm before the Storm?
Markets are unnervingly calm these days. During the last six months, the realized volatility of the S&P 500 Index fell to the lowest level in more than half a century. […]
Dovish Dots, but less stimulus the trend
After disbelieving the Fed for months, markets braced for a powerful message accompanying the first rate hike of this year. But that didn’t happen. One dovish hike and speech made […]
Graph of the week – Chinese Uncertainty
In China, they do things a bit differently. That goes for the Chinese economy as well. During the last two years year-on-year GDP growth ‘fluctuated’ between the 6.7% and 7.0%. […]
Week End Blog – Short Squeeze Japanese Style
An authentic short squeeze. That’s what this week’s major JPY move reflects. After years of riding along with the Bank of Japan, things completely reversed. The USDJPY exchanged rate crossed […]
13 Recession Charts!
Over the last couple of days equity markets have intensified their downward trend. Worries about China and falling oil prices are now accompanied by another major issue, the (increasing) possibility […]
Week End Blog – Politicians to the Rescue?
Welcome to the Week End Blog. This week was again all about politics. European politics, to be precise. First, the Greek roller coaster continued for at least another week. In […]
